Logic and psychology. Logic is not concerned with what passes in consciousness, and no person's confidence in an argument is any sure sign of the argument's validity. Doctrine of chances serves to illustrate these points.
Logic (modal see Modality), Logic and psychology, Meaning, Probability and Chance, doctrine of chances, Psychology and logic
pp. 2-7.7, 8-8 2/3 (p. 8 following p. 7.1), 6-8 (p. 6 following p. 5 of the first sequence)